Record Store Day - It's a Niche

In January BBC News added to the hours spent predicting the death of physical sales and bemoaning the rise of streaming. We have also had the collapse and revival of HMV, and seen that also blamed on streaming. As it's Record Store Day again, and once again it's all vinyl, vinyl, vinyl. Time to look at some stats showing the current state of music sales and see how they measure up to the hype.

The headlines always focus on the decline in physical numbers of CD sales and the percentage growth of vinyl sales. In 2018 there were 4.2 million vinyl records sold new, about £60 million worth ^. CD sales were 32 million, while this was a decline in quantity, value held fairly steady at £450 million*.  Downloading took the biggest hit declining to £35 million worth, bearing mind that a lot of these"unit sales" are single songs rather than albums. Streaming music sales pulled in £829 million '. So overall music sales are worth around £1.5 billion. This is a decline of about 41% by value since the peak in 2000.

Some facts:

• The overall music business is worth about 4.5 billion, with live music, merchandising, exports, and publishing included. Allowing for inflation this is about the same as in 2000. So live music and the rest has grown significantly since then
• The death of HMV blamed on streaming was in fact about DVD sales collapse, which fell by 45% in 2018~. 
• The real vinyl revival is in second hand discs, which don't show up in sales figures. Talking to several record shop owners recently suggests that their sales are booming. But then so are their cd sales.
• Ebay, Discogs & Amazon Marketplace UK used cd sales amounted to nearly £500 million in 2018 ".

The biggest selling albums in the UK in 2018 accordnig to the Official Charts Company by physical & digital sales were:

What does all this tell us?

• Old folks buy cds, (vinyl in this context is next to non existent), young people buy digital, and Christmas (Now 101) makes a big difference. 
• Physical sales are more healthy than it seems on first inspection
• Physical media of all sorts are becoming a niche or hobbyist market. Knitting is worth about £400 million interestingly...
• HMV with £250 million of sales is critical to the survival of the market, Independent shops prop up the hobby end of the market but don't compete on volume sales
• The supermarkets (particularly Tesco & Sainsburys) largely exiting the cheap cd market has hit sales but not damaged value much. 
• The markets for streaming and physical media are almost totally mutually exclusive.
• Those in their 20s or younger consume music as they do video or games, it isn't "special" to them in the way it is to older demographics

So don't believe the vinyl hype CDs, downloads, and streaming all have their place. The big problem comes in a decade or so when us old people have all stopped buying physical media and the age of music as a mass market medium ends. 

^ Source  - The Vinyl Factory 4.1.19
* Source  - UK Investor magazine 3.1.19
' Source  - Music Business worldwide 3.1.19
~ Source - Variety 9.2.19
" Source - Den Of Geek 12.3.19

In a holding pattern

Once again life has taken over and time to write here is at a premium. (Ab)normal service will resume in April, if the world keeps gets any madder I may have nothing else left to do by then. In the meantime here is the news.

Blog favourite Bill Nelson has been interviewed to destruction in the wake of Be-Bop Deluxe reissues. Vintage Rock.com talked to him HERE and Record Collector HERE. You can safely ignore Classic Rock, Prog etc as they think he stopped recording in 1977.


Another favourite Over The Rhine have issued a new album Love And Revelation , and it's their best since Ohio. I'll be back with a review of this soon. In the meantime buy it HERE.


A gig I went to in February was reviewed at Americana UK. Laura Gibson has been bubbling around on my radar for a while without ever getting the attention she deserved. I was initially drawn by the Jolie Holland comparison that comes up regularly. However there are elements of Mazzy Star and similar that are closer reference points. Her album "Goners" is fighting with the OTR disc for space on the iPod at the moment.

The failure and resurrection of HMV, closure of more independent shops and the general expectation that the vinyl revival will save the world were news for a moment recently. Vinyl won't save the world, CD still outsells it. What will save the world is a well run large chain pushing music in all formats that gives the record companies confidence to produce music in all genres, because there is someone who will take in enough stock to let them make money. The closure of Fopp in Bristol is a loss to me, but if it wasn't making money then it had to go.

And finally

I went back for some more of the lucky dips at Missing Records I talked about previously. My daughter was delighted with her Abba & Taylor Swift discs, and I got Dylan at Budokan and Sylvian/Fripp's "The First Day" along with a pile of stuff I have yet to listen to. Why am I telling you about this you will only go and buy discs I could have had...